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How Inflation Might Affect The Housing Market

The dictionary definition of inflation is a “substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency.” In other words, inflation means you get less bang for your buck. And, according to a new outlook from Freddie Mac, it has shown signs it may be about to increase, which could have an impact on the housing market. “Which course inflation takes over the next year will have important implications for housing and mortgage markets,” says Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. If inflation heads higher – the outlook imagines – interest rates could also rise and lead to falling home sales and mortgage originations. The good news, however, is that Freddie Mac believes inflation will rise only modestly over the next two years. That’s encouraging for potential home buyers worried about deteriorating affordability conditions. “With the housing market on the verge of the spring home buying season, this is good news in an environment where historically low mortgage rates will help offset the pace of house price growth and lack of for-sale inventory in many markets,” Becketti says. In short, there is a chance inflation could rise depending on upcoming trends and economic policy but, more than likely, the increase will be gradual and shouldn’t affect housing market activity in the near term. More here.

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Lower Rates Give Buyers Spring Fever

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey is a measure of both mortgage rates and demand for loan applications. Conducted weekly since 1990, the survey is a good source for tracking market trends. According to the most recent survey, average mortgage rates fell last week across all loan categories. Rates declined for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with both conforming and jumbo balances, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration. MBA economist, Joel Kan, said the rate drop was largely due to events overseas. “Rates declined last week as investors favored U.S. Treasury bonds due mainly to political concerns from abroad,” Kan told CNBC. Regardless of the reason rates moved lower, prospective buyers took advantage. In fact, demand for loans to buy homes rose 7 percent from the week before. But because spring is typically the busiest time of year for home buyers, some of that spike might have to do with the approaching sales season more than the rate drop. Also in the report, refinance activity climbed 5 percent over the previous week. It is now at its highest level so far this year. The week’s results contain an adjustment for the Presidents’ Day holiday. More here.

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Home Buyer Demand Hits Post-Recession High

Though this year’s real estate market may not look as buyer friendly as it has in recent years, demand is at its highest level since the Great Recession, according to the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun. Yun says Americans are feeling more confident about their financial status due to better job prospects and recent stock market gains. That, of course, is positive news. But the flip side of increasing buyer demand is more competition for available homes at a time when for-sale inventory is lower than normal in many markets. “Buyer traffic is easily outpacing seller traffic in several metro areas and is why homes are selling at a much faster rate than a year ago,” Yun says. “Most notably in the West, it’s not uncommon to see a home come off the market within a month.” So what does this mean for the spring season? Well, if you’re a prospective buyer, it means you should be ready to move quickly when you find a house you’re interested in. It also means you should be on the lookout for rising prices. Where there are more home buyers than available houses, price increases will accelerate. Yun warns that, especially in expensive markets, “prospective buyers will feel this squeeze in their budget and will likely have to come up with additional savings or compromise on home size or location.” More here.